Malaysian Air Flight 17: The Too-Late Oppositelock Summary

"For Sweden" (rallybeetle)
07/21/2014 at 12:49 • Filed to: mh17, aviation safety, aviation security, planelopnik

Author's note: I was on vacation last week, and I didn't want to summarize such a complex story until I returned.

Jalopnik , along with its sub-blogs Flight Club and Foxtrot Alpha , have provided stellar coverage of !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! . By now, everyone knows the basics: Malaysian Air Flight 17, also flying a codeshare as KLM Flight 4103, departed Amsterdam for Kuala Lumpur only to run into centuries of slavic sectarian conflict and crash into the middle of the Ukrainian Civil War. 298 souls were murdered, and no one has claimed responsibility for launching the missile that destroyed the Boeing 777.

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

!!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! , implicated fighters of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, operating the immensely capable SA-11 "Buk" surface-to-air missile system. The evidence suggests the perpetrators were !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! looking to bag a Ukrainian military transport aircraft, not terrorists seeking to kill civilians unrelated to the civil war. Yet the likely perpetrators remain unrepentant, resorting to simple denial and disgusting !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! - !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! .

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

Fortunately the bloodshed has almost certainly ended, but the geopolitical shit-show is only beginning. Two-thirds of the murdered passengers held citizenship in the Netherlands, a NATO member, and !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! boarded with the passport of a nation particularly chummy with the Russian Federation (though three passengers held dual citizenship in Vietnam). In the most technical sense, the DNR and perhaps even the Russian Federation likely committed an act of war against Malaysia. The case could be made that an act of war was committed against the Netherlands, given the number of Dutch citizens lost and the fact that MH17 was also flying as KL4103. In practical terms, the gravest concern is the complete disregard of the DNR and the Russian Federation for the internationally-codified process of investigating aircraft accidents.

Unsurprisingly, the DNR isn't a signatory of the !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! or a member of the International Civil Aviation Organization. !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! of the Chicago Convention dictates that the state of occurrence must not only secure the accident site, but must also comply with any requests from the State of Registry (Malaysia), the State of the Operator (Malaysia), the State of Design (USA), or the State of Manufacture (USA) to not disturb the crash site until their investigators have arrived. If any requests have been made by these states, they are clearly !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! . President Vladimir Putin has !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! an investigation lead by the ICAO, but the ICAO's own rules have not only been broken beyond recognition, they would require an investigation led by either the Ukrainians or a state of their choosing. Per Annex 13:

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

5.1 The State of Occurrence shall institute an investigation into the circumstances of the accident and be responsible for the conduct of the investigation, but it may delegate the whole or any part of the conducting of such investigation to another State by mutual arrangement and consent. In any event the State of Occurrence shall use every means to facilitate the investigation.

Even though almost every nation recognizes the crash site as Ukrainian territory, let's pretend it's not. Per Annex 13, either the Malaysians or a state of their choosing would lead the investigation:

5.3 When the location of the accident or the serious incident cannot definitely be established as being in the territory of any State, the State of Registry shall institute and conduct any necessary investigation of the accident or serious incident. However, it may delegate the whole or any part of the investigation to another State by mutual arrangement and consent.

If we descend so far deep into the rabbit hole that we consider the accident site to be a legal part of the DNR, then the DNR is in gross violation of international law and is acting like a rogue state.

No matter the circumstances of the accident site, in no way does President Putin have any legal standing to demand the incident be investigated in any particular way. The accident didn't happen in Russia, the flight was not operated by Russians, and the Boeing 777 was not designed or built in Russia. Only the Ukraine or perhaps Malaysia can delegate the investigation to ICAO, and Mr. Putin's attempts to do so amount to the basic arrogance we've come to expect from the Kremlin.

Image source: Reuters via !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!!

DISCUSSION (7)

Jcarr > For Sweden
07/21/2014 at 12:55

Excellent write-up. Interested to see how this plays out.

KusabiSensei - Captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs > For Sweden
07/21/2014 at 13:04

In practical terms, the gravest concern is the complete disregard of the DNR and the Russian Federation for the internationally-codified process of investigating aircraft accidents.

I think you will find that this applies to any kind of accident involving the Russian Federation or the former USSR.

c.f. that small little nuclear accident in what is now Ukraine in 1986. The USSR denied everything until the Swedes had radiation alarms go off at Forsmark.

ly2v8-Brian > For Sweden
07/21/2014 at 13:14

It will be interesting what happens when we find out who did this. The big question is if the Dutch feel if this warrants article 5 (especially if it turns out Russia was involved or they can prove who ever launched knew it was an airliner). At the very least they may issue article 4.

ttyymmnn > For Sweden
07/21/2014 at 13:16

There's an interesting theory being put forth by The Aviationist blog that says that MH17 was being escorted by two Ukrainian Su-27s at, or shortly before, the missile was launched. It's conceivable that the missile crew mistook the flight for a high-ranking Ukrainian plane.

Provided the Su-27s were really escorting or (more likely) watching from their CAP station many, if not all, civil flights over Eastern Ukraine for the first time ever on Jul. 17, in the wake of the downing of the Su-25 , the operators inside the Buk may have mistaken the Boeing 777 shadowed by/near two Flankers for a high-value plane of the Ukrainian Air Force. On their radar screens, the sight of a large plane with two accompanying (or circling in CAP not too far away) fighter jets was completely new and may only mean the Ukrainians were escorting an important plane. And that would be the reason why they downed it without spending too much time analysing its transponder code and altitude.

For Sweden > ttyymmnn
07/21/2014 at 13:28

That's interesting, but it just reinforces the most basic lesson of hunter's education: Know what you're shooting at.

ttyymmnn > For Sweden
07/21/2014 at 13:37

Agreed.

briannutter1 > For Sweden
07/21/2014 at 13:48

Very nice piece you've written. I can't stop watching the news because it *Could* be pivotal, but won't be. Maybe in public opinion, but little else. Obama isn't stepping in now just as Bush stood by when Georgia was invaded. Putin knows exactly what steps he can take and will be even more emboldened now with our collective non-response.

He knows we're dealing with a bunch of fronts now as well. Things are so bad with Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Syria, Gaza, etc. North Korea is feeling left out and will undoubtedly do something immeasurably stupid to win back it's enemies soon. Fuck, even Castro rolled out of his coffin to enjoy the show.

Ukraine straddled the line between Europe and Russia and didn't commit to the West. Because of that, I don't think it's the line in the sand that we're looking for. We are spoiling for a fight, but it has to be for the right reasons (standing up for friends that have stood by us). Until then, I don't want to owe the Chinese a couple more trillion fighting wars for people that don't appreciate it.